← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Jul 27, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Martín Pérez (ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.2) · home: Zac Thornton (ERA 1.93, WHIP 0.86)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Cleveland Guardians win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in New York Mets v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.89 | $17.78 | +32% | — | pending |
Atlanta Braves win in New York Mets v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 50% | 2.02 |
| Atlanta Braves win | 50% | 2.01 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.97 | 1.87 | -5.3% | |
| New York Mets win | 1.79 | 1.97 | +9.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| New York Mets | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | — | 14 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| elo | 1471.49 | 1543.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.65 | 5.16 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.00 |