Oakland Athletics 2–5 Washington Nationals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 19, 08:05 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Foster Griffin (ERA 2.77, WHIP 1.02) · home: Jacob Lopez (ERA 6.83, WHIP 1.79)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23	Portfolio	$14.04	2.23	$17.27	+8%	-14.04	lost
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.23	$12.30	+16%	-10.00	lost
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 lost leg 2: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 won leg 3: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	6.66	$11.32	+18%	-2.00	lost
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.05	$10.51	+8%	-10.00	lost
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97	Drought fade	$10.00	1.97	$9.70	+3%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Washington Nationals win	55%	1.86
Oakland Athletics win	45%	2.29

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Washington Nationals win		1.73	1.71	-1.5%
Oakland Athletics win		2.01	2.21	+9.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Washington Nationals	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	5
Oakland Athletics	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Oakland Athletics	Washington Nationals
congestion 21d	11.00	11.00
elo	1442.80	1465.37
elo momentum (last 5)	-11.92	-6.28
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	0.75	0.75
runs against avg (last 10)	8.10	5.90
runs for avg (last 10)	3.90	6.50