← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 19, 06:20 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Zebby Matthews (ERA 4.57, WHIP 1.22) · home: Shota Imanaga (ERA 4.17, WHIP 1.12)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 lost leg 2: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 won leg 3: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.66 | $11.32 | +18% | -2.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +6% | +6.48 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 59% | 1.65 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 41% | 2.49 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.80 | 2.40 | +33.4% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.18 | 1.61 | +36.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Chicago Cubs | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 10 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1535.41 | 1471.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.52 | 4.11 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.80 |