← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 19, 02:05 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 lost leg 2: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 won leg 3: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.66 | $11.32 | +18% | -2.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +3% | +9.70 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.12 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.12 | $11.20 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 53% | 1.97 |
| Washington Nationals win | 47% | 2.12 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 1.87 | 2.08 | +11.4% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 1.86 | 1.83 | -1.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Oakland Athletics | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | — | 15 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| elo | 1436.54 | 1471.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.95 | -4.51 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 8.90 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 6.70 |