← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 2, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jacob Misiorowski (ERA 1.73, WHIP 0.75) · home: David Peterson (ERA 5.11, WHIP 1.52)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.37 | Portfolio | $14.96 | 2.37 | $20.50 | +10% | -14.96 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +17% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 lost leg 2: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 3: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.04 | $12.08 | +25% | -2.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 57% | 1.76 |
| Chicago Cubs win | 43% | 3.40 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.70 | 1.31 | -23.1% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 2.05 | 3.40 | +65.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| Chicago Cubs | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1551.53 | 1581.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.22 | -2.72 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 8.50 | 5.10 |