← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 2, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Patrick Sandoval (ERA 4.2, WHIP 1.71)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | Portfolio | $17.65 | 1.77 | $13.59 | +7% | -17.65 | lost |
leg 1: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 lost leg 2: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 3: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.04 | $12.08 | +25% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +11% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +11% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 56% | 1.77 |
| Seattle Mariners win | 44% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 2.14 | 2.15 | +0.5% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.70 | 1.74 | +1.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1551.06 | 1483.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.71 | -6.02 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |