Arizona Diamondbacks 1–7 Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 2, 01:40 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Jesús Luzardo (ERA 3.09, WHIP 1.12) · home: Eduardo Rodriguez (ERA 2.5, WHIP 1.19)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23	Portfolio	$9.22	2.23	$11.34	+6%	-9.22	lost
leg 1: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 lost leg 2: Baltimore Orioles win in Colorado Rockies v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 lost leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.11 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	8.19	$14.37	+28%	-2.00	lost
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.23	$12.30	+13%	-10.00	lost
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.14	$11.40	+8%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	56%	1.77
Arizona Diamondbacks win	44%	3.29

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.65	1.36	-17.3%
Arizona Diamondbacks win		2.14	3.29	+53.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Philadelphia Phillies	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1	7
Arizona Diamondbacks	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Arizona Diamondbacks	Philadelphia Phillies
congestion 21d	19.00	17.00
elo	1517.12	1559.32
elo momentum (last 5)	-3.09	12.93
matches since win	2.00	0.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	4.70	3.40
runs for avg (last 10)	3.80	5.00