← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 1, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Robert Gasser (ERA 4.59, WHIP 1.3) · home: Matthew Boyd (ERA 3.99, WHIP 1.22)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 lost leg 2: Baltimore Orioles win in Colorado Rockies v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 lost leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.11 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.19 | $14.37 | +28% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.11 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.11 | $11.10 | +5% | +11.10 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 51% | 4.13 |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 49% | 2.11 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.83 | 1.25 | -31.7% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.83 | 4.13 | +125.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1555.69 | 1577.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.11 | -3.27 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 8.60 | 4.40 |