← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 2, 12:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Bradish (ERA 4.03, WHIP 1.41) · home: Gabriel Hughes (ERA 6.61, WHIP 1.45)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 lost leg 2: Baltimore Orioles win in Colorado Rockies v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 lost leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.11 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.19 | $14.37 | +28% | -2.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Colorado Rockies v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.74 | $7.40 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Colorado Rockies v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.74 | $7.40 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 57% | 2.01 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 43% | 2.38 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 1.72 | 1.63 | -5.4% | |
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.14 | 2.35 | +10.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rockies | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1383.52 | 1509.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.07 | 5.78 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.40 |