Cleveland Guardians 6–1 Toronto Blue Jays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 1, 10:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Spencer Arrighetti (ERA 4.81, WHIP 1.36) · home: Gavin Williams (ERA 3.98, WHIP 1.12)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 won leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	10.48	$18.95	+36%	-2.00	lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.46	$14.59	+14%	-10.00	lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.46	$14.59	+14%	-10.00	lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46	Portfolio	$7.92	2.46	$11.56	+5%	-7.92	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cleveland Guardians win	61%	1.60
Toronto Blue Jays win	39%	2.59

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Toronto Blue Jays win		2.34	2.52	+7.7%
Cleveland Guardians win		1.57	1.55	-1.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Toronto Blue Jays	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
Cleveland Guardians	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	2	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Cleveland Guardians	Toronto Blue Jays
congestion 21d	18.00	18.00
elo	1505.20	1514.56
elo momentum (last 5)	-0.16	5.19
matches since win	0.00	0.00
rest days	2.21	2.21
runs against avg (last 10)	3.10	3.70
runs for avg (last 10)	5.50	4.00