← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 1, 10:45 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Bryan Woo (ERA 4.36, WHIP 1.1)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.85 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.85 | $8.50 | +21% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 won leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.48 | $18.95 | +36% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Portfolio | $9.59 | 1.70 | $6.74 | +3% | -9.59 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 52% | 18.75 |
| Seattle Mariners win | 48% | 2.19 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 2.09 | 1.04 | -50.4% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.67 | 18.75 | +1019.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1555.65 | 1478.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.96 | -14.64 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |