← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 1, 10:45 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: AJ Smith-Shawver (ERA 5.93, WHIP 1.61) · home: Jake Irvin (ERA 5.62, WHIP 1.4)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.49 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 2.49 | $14.90 | +4% | +14.90 | won |
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 won leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.48 | $18.95 | +36% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +5% | +14.59 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +5% | +14.59 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 60% | 1.66 |
| Washington Nationals win | 40% | 2.52 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.57 | 1.60 | +2.2% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 2.34 | 2.41 | +2.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1460.98 | 1543.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.38 | 0.43 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.03 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.10 |