Cleveland Guardians 11–1 Kansas City Royals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 30, 05:40 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Kansas City Royals win in Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72	Portfolio	$6.45	2.72	$11.09	+5%	-6.45	lost
leg 1: Kansas City Royals win in Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 lost leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.51 lost leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Minnesota Twins v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	14.00	$25.99	+31%	-2.00	lost
Kansas City Royals win in Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.72	$17.20	+11%	-10.00	lost
Kansas City Royals win in Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.46	$14.59	-2%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cleveland Guardians win	61%	1.60
Kansas City Royals win	39%	2.72

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Kansas City Royals win		2.29	2.55	+11.7%
Cleveland Guardians win		1.52	1.53	+0.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Kansas City Royals	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Cleveland Guardians	3	0	3	3	0	2	0	0	—	11

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Cleveland Guardians	Kansas City Royals
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1500.77	1481.27
elo momentum (last 5)	-1.91	16.68
matches since win	2.00	0.00
rest days	0.90	0.90
runs against avg (last 10)	3.10	3.00
runs for avg (last 10)	4.40	6.30