← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 30, 06:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Kansas City Royals win in Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 lost leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.51 lost leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Minnesota Twins v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 14.00 | $25.99 | +31% | -2.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Minnesota Twins v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.50 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 51% | 1.90 |
| Chicago White Sox win | 49% | 46.79 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.79 | 2.01 | +12.0% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.86 | 1.83 | -1.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1454.60 | 1510.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.87 | 6.26 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.90 |