Detroit Tigers 2–1 Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 29, 05:10 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.60	Portfolio	$8.08	2.60	$12.93	+6%	+12.93	won
leg 1: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07 won leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 won leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Minnesota Twins v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	10.40	$18.81	+27%	+18.81	won
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.40	$13.99	+7%	+13.99	won
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.40	$13.99	+7%	+13.99	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	61%	1.62
Detroit Tigers win	39%	2.60

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.52	1.55	+1.6%
Detroit Tigers win		2.34	2.52	+7.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Los Angeles Dodgers	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
Detroit Tigers	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Detroit Tigers	Los Angeles Dodgers
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1498.99	1577.87
elo momentum (last 5)	-9.51	-1.83
matches since win	2.00	0.00
rest days	0.77	0.77
runs against avg (last 10)	4.20	3.40
runs for avg (last 10)	2.80	4.70