← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 29, 12:15 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07 won leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 won leg 3: Chicago White Sox win in Minnesota Twins v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.40 | $18.81 | +27% | +18.81 | won |
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.07 | $10.70 | +12% | +10.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 51% | 2.07 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 49% | 7.25 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.83 | 2.08 | +13.9% | |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 1.86 | 1.77 | -4.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1490.79 | 1490.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.73 | -1.61 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.25 | 2.17 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 3.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.20 |