Detroit Tigers 1–2 Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 28, 10:40 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.84	Portfolio	$14.28	2.84	$26.28	+12%	-14.28	lost
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 won leg 2: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost leg 3: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	7.22	$12.44	+31%	-2.00	lost
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.52	$15.22	+11%	-10.00	lost
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.52	$15.22	+11%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	64%	1.52
Detroit Tigers win	36%	2.89

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.52	1.47	-3.5%
Detroit Tigers win		2.40	2.80	+16.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Los Angeles Dodgers	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2
Detroit Tigers	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Detroit Tigers	Los Angeles Dodgers
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1500.76	1576.10
elo momentum (last 5)	-10.90	-2.27
matches since win	1.00	3.00
rest days	2.23	0.98
runs against avg (last 10)	4.70	3.90
runs for avg (last 10)	3.20	4.70