← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 28, 11:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 won leg 2: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost leg 3: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.22 | $12.44 | +31% | -2.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 1.79 | $3.97 | +9% | -5.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 55% | 1.79 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 45% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 2.05 | 2.19 | +6.6% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.70 | 1.71 | +0.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1509.72 | 1472.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.73 | 14.78 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.13 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.50 |