Hot hand fade

Mean-reversion creative: fade sides whose Elo momentum is scorching (opponent momentum in top band) — the market overprices streaks. Expected to be humbled; that is the point of testing it.

The rule, in plain words

Probabilities come from: Elo rating (strength score updated after every match; converted to a win probability).
Bets any Match winner (2-way) selection where the model's probability × best available price beats 1.00 by more than -5% — i.e. the model thinks the outcome is meaningfully more likely than the price implies.
Extra condition: elo momentum (last 5) of the opponent must be at least 15.
Stakes: flat $5 per bet.

baseball · Match winner (2-way) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy

$1004.51

balance (started at $1000)

+4.51

30.1% return on money staked

2/3

bets won / settled

0 bets still pending

Every bet this strategy madelatest 3

Bet	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97	$5.00	1.97	$4.85	+1%	+4.85	won
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93	$5.00	1.93	$4.66	-1%	+4.66	won
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00	$5.00	2.00	$5.00	+2%	-5.00	lost

"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.