Mean-reversion creative: fade sides whose Elo momentum is scorching (opponent momentum in top band) — the market overprices streaks. Expected to be humbled; that is the point of testing it.
baseball · Match winner (2-way) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | $5.00 | 1.62 | $3.11 | -2% | +3.11 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Kansas City Royals v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07 | $5.00 | 2.07 | $5.35 | -3% | +5.35 | won |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | $5.00 | 1.79 | $3.97 | +9% | -5.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 | $5.00 | 1.90 | $4.48 | +17% | -5.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.78 | $5.00 | 1.78 | $3.90 | +10% | +3.90 | won |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.98 | $5.00 | 1.98 | $4.90 | -3% | -5.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $5.00 | 2.46 | $7.30 | +11% | +7.30 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | $5.00 | 1.93 | $4.66 | -4% | +4.66 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.62 | $5.00 | 2.62 | $8.10 | -4% | -5.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | $5.00 | 1.86 | $4.30 | +0% | -5.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $5.00 | 1.76 | $3.80 | +5% | +3.80 | won |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.66 | $5.00 | 1.66 | $3.30 | +0% | +3.30 | won |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.92 | $5.00 | 1.92 | $4.60 | +3% | -5.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | $5.00 | 1.62 | $3.11 | -3% | -5.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | $5.00 | 1.67 | $3.37 | +1% | -5.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.71 | $5.00 | 1.71 | $3.55 | +3% | — | pending |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.75 | $5.00 | 1.75 | $3.75 | +5% | — | pending |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | $5.00 | 1.97 | $4.85 | +1% | +4.85 | won |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | $5.00 | 1.93 | $4.66 | -1% | +4.66 | won |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | $5.00 | 2.00 | $5.00 | +2% | -5.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.