Houston Astros 2–0 Tampa Bay Rays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 5, 07:30 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: · home: Peter Lambert (ERA 3.51, WHIP 1.18)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97	Hot hand fade	$5.00	1.97	$4.85	+1%	+4.85	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Tampa Bay Rays win	53%	1.76
Houston Astros win	47%	1.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Tampa Bay Rays	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Houston Astros	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	—	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Houston Astros	Tampa Bay Rays
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1490.88	1525.81
elo momentum (last 5)	-4.79	10.82
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	0.85	0.85
runs against avg (last 10)	4.90	2.60
runs for avg (last 10)	4.40	6.30