← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 4, 12:15 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 2.00 | $5.00 | +2% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 50% | 1.98 |
| Houston Astros win | 50% | 2.00 |
across 24 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.90 | 1.92 | +1.0% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.93 | 1.92 | -0.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1490.83 | 1525.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.56 | 16.62 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 1.02 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.80 |