← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 4, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Drew Rasmussen (ERA 2.45, WHIP 0.87) · home: Hunter Brown (ERA 1.78, WHIP 1.18)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 1.93 | $4.66 | -1% | +4.66 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 51% | 1.86 |
| Houston Astros win | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Houston Astros | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1487.83 | 1528.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.67 | 17.04 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.00 |