New York Mets 2–8 Milwaukee Brewers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 27, 11:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Jacob Misiorowski (ERA 1.68, WHIP 0.76) · home: Sean Manaea (ERA 4.31, WHIP 1.31)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.90	Portfolio	$13.61	2.90	$25.86	+12%	-13.61	lost
leg 1: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost leg 2: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 3: New York Mets win in New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	8.28	$14.57	+41%	-2.00	lost
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.52	$15.22	+8%	-10.00	lost
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.52	$15.22	+8%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Milwaukee Brewers win	64%	1.55
New York Mets win	36%	2.90

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Milwaukee Brewers win		1.52	1.46	-3.9%
New York Mets win		2.46	2.81	+14.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Milwaukee Brewers	2	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	8
New York Mets	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	New York Mets	Milwaukee Brewers
congestion 21d	17.00	18.00
elo	1492.47	1580.42
elo momentum (last 5)	-1.42	2.27
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	3.80	2.40
runs for avg (last 10)	3.60	6.20