← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 27, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Hayden Wesneski (ERA 4.23, WHIP 1.23) · home: Gerrit Cole (ERA 3.11, WHIP 1.07)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost leg 2: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 3: New York Mets win in New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.28 | $14.57 | +41% | -2.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +11% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +11% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 57% | 1.73 |
| Houston Astros win | 43% | 2.37 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 2.14 | 2.34 | +9.5% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.65 | 1.62 | -1.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1559.20 | 1494.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.33 | -2.21 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.90 |