Toronto Blue Jays 2–13 Kansas City Royals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 27, 11:07 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Noah Cameron (ERA 4.02, WHIP 1.21)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97	Portfolio	$19.58	1.97	$19.00	+9%	-19.58	lost
leg 1: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost leg 2: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 3: New York Mets win in New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	8.28	$14.57	+41%	-2.00	lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90	Hot hand fade	$5.00	1.90	$4.48	+17%	-5.00	lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.90	$8.96	+17%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Kansas City Royals win	50%	1.94
Toronto Blue Jays win	50%	1.97

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Kansas City Royals win		1.86	1.86	0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays win		1.83	1.96	+7.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Kansas City Royals	2	2	0	0	0	6	0	1	2	13
Toronto Blue Jays	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Toronto Blue Jays	Kansas City Royals
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1512.11	1465.55
elo momentum (last 5)	-4.01	11.78
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	3.70	3.30
runs for avg (last 10)	4.20	5.50