Washington Nationals 7–1 Colorado Rockies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 27, 05:05 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Gabriel Hughes (ERA 6.54, WHIP 1.36) · home: Jake Irvin (ERA 5.82, WHIP 1.36)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86	Portfolio	$22.79	1.86	$19.61	+9%	+19.61	won
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.78 won leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	6.92	$11.84	+39%	+11.84	won
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86	Drought fade	$10.00	1.86	$8.61	+23%	+8.61	won
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.86	$8.61	+23%	+8.61	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Washington Nationals win	52%	1.90
Colorado Rockies win	48%	2.19

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Colorado Rockies win		1.90	2.00	+5.2%
Washington Nationals win		1.70	1.85	+8.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Colorado Rockies	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Washington Nationals	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	—	7

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Washington Nationals	Colorado Rockies
congestion 21d	19.00	18.00
elo	1451.60	1391.58
elo momentum (last 5)	-13.35	3.17
matches since win	2.00	0.00
rest days	0.76	0.76
runs against avg (last 10)	4.30	6.60
runs for avg (last 10)	3.00	5.30