← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 26, 05:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Freddy Peralta (ERA 5.33, WHIP 1.46) · home: Troy Melton (ERA 1.6, WHIP 1)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.78 won leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.92 | $11.84 | +39% | +11.84 | won |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.90 | +2% | +10.90 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 52% | 1.90 |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 48% | 2.09 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.93 | 2.01 | +4.0% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.83 | 1.83 | +0.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1504.40 | 1525.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.03 | -1.63 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.50 |