← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 26, 11:07 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Randy Dobnak (ERA 1.58, WHIP 1.4) · home: Shane Bieber (ERA 4.53, WHIP 1.44)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.78 won leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.92 | $11.84 | +39% | +11.84 | won |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.78 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 1.78 | $3.90 | +10% | +3.90 | won |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +7% | +7.03 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 55% | 1.78 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 45% | 2.29 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 2.14 | 2.13 | -0.5% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.73 | 1.75 | +0.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toronto Blue Jays | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1509.37 | 1468.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.42 | 17.48 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.50 |