← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 26, 10:45 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Tanner Gordon (ERA 5.75, WHIP 1.49)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Portfolio | $25.86 | 1.83 | $21.46 | +10% | -25.86 | lost |
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 won leg 2: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 won leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.58 | $13.16 | +40% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.75 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.75 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 56% | 1.83 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 44% | 2.29 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.19 | 2.05 | -6.2% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 1.57 | 1.79 | +14.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1459.11 | 1384.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.50 | -8.19 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.10 |