← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 26, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Sonny Gray (ERA 2.79, WHIP 1.16) · home: Ryan Gusto (ERA undefined, WHIP undefined)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 won leg 2: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 won leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.58 | $13.16 | +40% | -2.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +17% | +15.22 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +17% | +15.22 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 58% | 1.76 |
| Miami Marlins win | 42% | 2.52 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.67 | 1.65 | -1.5% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 2.05 | 2.34 | +14.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miami Marlins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1492.24 | 1565.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.97 | 10.64 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.80 |