← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 26, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Bubba Chandler (ERA 4.38, WHIP 1.37)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 won leg 2: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 won leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.58 | $13.16 | +40% | -2.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +10% | +7.94 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 54% | 1.79 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 46% | 2.19 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 2.05 | 2.09 | +2.1% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.76 | 1.73 | -1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1533.68 | 1493.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.18 | -0.20 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.20 |