Washington Nationals 1–3 Colorado Rockies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 25, 10:45 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: · home: Andrew Alvarez (ERA 3.6, WHIP 1.34)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 3: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	5.68	$9.36	+48%	-2.00	lost
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73	Drought fade	$10.00	1.73	$7.32	+13%	-10.00	lost
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.73	$7.32	+13%	-10.00	lost
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76	Portfolio	$16.96	1.76	$12.94	+5%	-16.96	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Washington Nationals win	57%	1.76
Colorado Rockies win	43%	2.31

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Colorado Rockies win		2.09	2.29	+9.2%
Washington Nationals win		1.67	1.67	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Colorado Rockies	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	3
Washington Nationals	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Washington Nationals	Colorado Rockies
congestion 21d	18.00	18.00
elo	1463.09	1380.09
elo momentum (last 5)	-6.15	-13.98
matches since win	0.00	7.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	3.60	7.30
runs for avg (last 10)	3.30	4.30