← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 25, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Ethan Pecko (ERA 4.91, WHIP 1.64) · home: Will Warren (ERA 4.43, WHIP 1.4)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 3: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.68 | $9.36 | +48% | -2.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +12% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 55% | 4.51 |
| Houston Astros win | 45% | 2.27 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 2.09 | 1.23 | -41.2% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.67 | 4.51 | +169.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1559.91 | 1493.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.68 | -10.23 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 2.20 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 5.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |