← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 25, 11:07 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Seth Lugo (ERA 4.71, WHIP 1.38) · home: Max Scherzer (ERA 7.4, WHIP 1.51)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost leg 3: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.68 | $9.36 | +48% | -2.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +17% | -10.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Portfolio | $18.23 | 1.86 | $15.69 | +7% | -18.23 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 52% | 46.79 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 48% | 2.14 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 1.93 | 2.07 | +7.1% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.79 | 46.79 | +2508.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toronto Blue Jays | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1513.08 | 1464.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.41 | 16.17 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 2.21 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.70 |