Los Angeles Angels 2–4 Cleveland Guardians

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 25, 01:38 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Parker Messick (ERA 2.54, WHIP 1.03)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.48	Portfolio	$8.96	2.48	$13.26	+6%	-8.96	lost
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39 won leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 lost leg 3: Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.48 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	13.57	$25.15	+68%	-2.00	lost
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.48	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.48	$14.80	+13%	-10.00	lost
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.24	$12.36	+1%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cleveland Guardians win	59%	1.73
Los Angeles Angels win	41%	2.48

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Cleveland Guardians win		1.55	1.70	+10.1%
Los Angeles Angels win		2.24	2.19	-2.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Cleveland Guardians	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	4
Los Angeles Angels	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Los Angeles Angels	Cleveland Guardians
congestion 21d	19.00	18.00
elo	1430.12	1502.68
elo momentum (last 5)	7.82	9.03
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	1.29	1.27
runs against avg (last 10)	2.40	2.60
runs for avg (last 10)	4.40	4.40