San Francisco Giants 5–0 Cincinnati Reds

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 25, 01:45 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Chase Burns (ERA 2.51, WHIP 1.11)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39 won leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 lost leg 3: Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.48 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	13.57	$25.15	+68%	-2.00	lost
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.39	$13.90	+28%	+13.90	won
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.09	$10.95	+15%	+10.95	won
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09	Portfolio	$11.73	2.09	$12.84	+6%	+12.84	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cincinnati Reds win	55%	2.59
San Francisco Giants win	45%	2.40

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Cincinnati Reds win		1.76	2.59	+46.8%
San Francisco Giants win		1.97	1.55	-21.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
San Francisco Giants	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	5

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	San Francisco Giants	Cincinnati Reds
congestion 21d	17.00	20.00
elo	1456.15	1464.07
elo momentum (last 5)	-4.94	-0.58
matches since win	4.00	1.00
rest days	1.27	1.23
runs against avg (last 10)	4.80	5.80
runs for avg (last 10)	3.10	4.00