← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 25, 01:40 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | Portfolio | $12.36 | 2.29 | $15.94 | +7% | -12.36 | lost |
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39 won leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 lost leg 3: Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.48 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 13.57 | $25.15 | +68% | -2.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.90 | +16% | -10.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 56% | 1.79 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 44% | 2.89 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.61 | 1.44 | -10.6% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 2.01 | 2.89 | +44.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1519.62 | 1554.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.17 | -0.61 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.00 |