← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 24, 10:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.28 | $12.80 | +21% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 won leg 3: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.03 | $10.06 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +14% | -10.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Portfolio | $10.57 | 2.14 | $12.05 | +5% | -10.57 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 56% | 1.79 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 44% | 2.28 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.62 | 1.71 | +5.5% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 2.01 | 2.19 | +8.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1504.61 | 1525.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.25 | -4.47 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.19 | 1.21 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |