← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 24, 10:45 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 won leg 3: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.03 | $10.06 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +3% | +5.71 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 62% | 1.57 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 38% | 2.73 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.29 | 2.59 | +13.1% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 1.48 | 1.52 | +3.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | — | 13 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1459.46 | 1383.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.89 | -11.57 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.60 |