Los Angeles Dodgers 4–0 Pittsburgh Pirates

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 08:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Lake Bachar (ERA 3.75, WHIP 1.11) · home: Blake Snell (ERA 3.6, WHIP 1.13)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.50	Portfolio	$6.54	3.50	$16.35	+7%	-6.54	lost
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 2: Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 lost leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	9.38	$16.75	+20%	-2.00	lost
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18	Elo value MLB	$10.00	3.18	$21.78	+7%	-10.00	lost
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18	MLB dog variance	$10.00	3.18	$21.78	+7%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	67%	1.50
Pittsburgh Pirates win	33%	3.50

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Pittsburgh Pirates win		2.66	3.29	+23.6%
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.38	1.34	-2.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Los Angeles Dodgers	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	—	4

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Los Angeles Dodgers	Pittsburgh Pirates
congestion 21d	19.00	18.00
elo	1579.70	1490.65
elo momentum (last 5)	8.34	-0.84
matches since win	0.00	2.00
rest days	0.87	0.87
runs against avg (last 10)	4.00	4.10
runs for avg (last 10)	4.70	5.10