← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 11:00 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Tyler Mahle (ERA 4.53, WHIP 1.31) · home: Shane Drohan (ERA 3.86, WHIP 1.25)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.81 | Portfolio | $12.67 | 1.81 | $10.26 | +4% | -12.67 | lost |
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 2: Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 lost leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.38 | $16.75 | +20% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 53% | 11.74 |
| Atlanta Braves win | 47% | 2.18 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.97 | 1.07 | -45.7% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.70 | 11.74 | +589.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1582.48 | 1535.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.12 | -8.55 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 2.50 |