← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 12:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Dean Kremer (ERA 5.4, WHIP 1.18) · home: Casey Mize (ERA 3.18, WHIP 1.07)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 2: Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 lost leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.38 | $16.75 | +20% | -2.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +8% | +7.03 | won |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.20 | +2% | +6.20 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 58% | 9.41 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 42% | 2.45 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 2.29 | 1.09 | -52.3% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.65 | 9.41 | +471.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1533.26 | 1468.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.17 | 5.29 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |