⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Houston Astros 6–7 Oakland Athletics

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 06:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Brady Basso (ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.35) · home: Cristian Javier (ERA 6.44, WHIP 1.68)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
Portfolio$12.901.62$8.01+3%-12.90lost
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won
leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81 lost
leg 3: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 lost
Chaos parlay$2.009.55$17.10+41%-2.00lost
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
Drought fade$10.001.62$6.21+9%-10.00lost
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
Elo value MLB$10.001.62$6.21+9%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Houston Astros win61%1.65
Oakland Athletics win39%2.66

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Oakland Athletics win2.342.57+9.7%
Houston Astros win1.471.53+4.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Oakland Athletics0000601007
Houston Astros3102000006

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHouston AstrosOakland Athletics
congestion 21d18.0019.00
elo1496.401407.77
elo momentum (last 5)-11.57-6.72
matches since win1.000.00
rest days0.790.79
runs against avg (last 10)5.205.30
runs for avg (last 10)3.404.10