← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Brady Basso (ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.35) · home: Cristian Javier (ERA 6.44, WHIP 1.68)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Portfolio | $12.90 | 1.62 | $8.01 | +3% | -12.90 | lost |
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81 lost leg 3: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.55 | $17.10 | +41% | -2.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 61% | 1.65 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 39% | 2.66 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.34 | 2.57 | +9.7% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.47 | 1.53 | +4.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Houston Astros | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1496.40 | 1407.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.57 | -6.72 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.10 |