← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Nolan McLean (ERA 3.34, WHIP 1.16) · home: Sean Newcomb (ERA 2.44, WHIP 1.1)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Portfolio | $16.78 | 2.09 | $18.37 | +8% | +18.37 | won |
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81 lost leg 3: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.55 | $17.10 | +41% | -2.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +18% | +10.95 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 52% | 2.05 |
| Chicago White Sox win | 48% | 2.09 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 1.70 | 1.88 | +10.4% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.97 | 1.96 | -0.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1502.52 | 1495.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.17 | 3.57 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.80 |