← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 05:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Leahy (ERA 3.24, WHIP 1.31) · home: Cristopher Sánchez (ERA 2.51, WHIP 1.22)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81 lost leg 3: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.55 | $17.10 | +41% | -2.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.81 | $18.11 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.81 | $18.11 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 65% | 1.52 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 35% | 2.89 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 2.46 | 2.81 | +14.3% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.42 | 1.46 | +2.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1552.86 | 1498.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.93 | -1.91 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.20 |