New York Yankees 3–1 Toronto Blue Jays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 21, 11:05 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Toronto Blue Jays win in New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.95	Portfolio	$7.70	2.95	$15.02	+6%	-7.70	lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.66	$16.59	+6%	-10.00	lost
leg 1: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 lost leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	12.13	$22.26	+20%	-2.00	lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.59	$15.88	+3%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
New York Yankees win	64%	1.55
Toronto Blue Jays win	36%	2.95

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Toronto Blue Jays win		2.59	2.89	+11.8%
New York Yankees win		1.52	1.44	-5.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Toronto Blue Jays	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
New York Yankees	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	—	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	New York Yankees	Toronto Blue Jays
congestion 21d	17.00	20.00
elo	1556.87	1516.12
elo momentum (last 5)	8.00	8.89
matches since win	0.00	0.00
rest days	1.02	1.25
runs against avg (last 10)	2.40	3.40
runs for avg (last 10)	3.50	4.40