← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 21, 10:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 lost leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 12.13 | $22.26 | +20% | -2.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.66 | $16.59 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.66 | $16.59 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 66% | 1.48 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 34% | 3.29 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 2.73 | 2.73 | 0.0% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.44 | 1.46 | +1.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1547.45 | 1504.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.51 | 3.51 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.02 | 1.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.20 |