Tampa Bay Rays 7–6 Toronto Blue Jays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 19, 10:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Max Scherzer (ERA 6.59, WHIP 1.46) · home: Drew Rasmussen (ERA 2.78, WHIP 0.91)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Orlando City SC win in Orlando City SC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.87 leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08 leg 3: FC Dallas win in Real Salt Lake v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00	Chaos parlay	$2.00	35.33	$68.65	+115%	—	pending
Toronto Blue Jays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08	Elo value MLB	$10.00	3.08	$20.77	+29%	-10.00	lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08	MLB dog variance	$10.00	3.08	$20.77	+29%	-10.00	lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08	Portfolio	$14.67	3.08	$30.47	+12%	-14.67	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Tampa Bay Rays win	68%	1.50
Toronto Blue Jays win	32%	3.18

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Toronto Blue Jays win		2.89	2.75	-4.8%
Tampa Bay Rays win		1.34	1.48	+10.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Toronto Blue Jays	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	6
Tampa Bay Rays	2	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	—	7

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Tampa Bay Rays	Toronto Blue Jays
congestion 21d	19.00	18.00
elo	1529.91	1513.49
elo momentum (last 5)	-13.73	4.96
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	5.30	3.80
runs for avg (last 10)	5.90	4.60