← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 18, 10:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.10 | Portfolio | $11.20 | 3.10 | $23.52 | +9% | -11.20 | lost |
leg 1: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Colorado Rockies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 won leg 2: Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 lost leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.86 | $13.72 | +41% | -2.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.89 | $18.95 | +12% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.89 | $18.95 | +12% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 66% | 1.48 |
| Miami Marlins win | 34% | 3.10 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 2.66 | 2.98 | +12.2% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.40 | 1.42 | +1.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1542.49 | 1496.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.12 | -1.66 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.30 |