← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 18, 11:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.68 | Portfolio | $18.71 | 1.68 | $12.72 | +5% | +12.72 | won |
leg 1: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Colorado Rockies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 won leg 2: Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 lost leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.86 | $13.72 | +41% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +7% | +6.21 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 58% | 1.68 |
| Seattle Mariners win | 42% | 2.46 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 2.14 | 2.34 | +9.5% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.65 | 1.64 | -0.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | — | 22 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1574.36 | 1490.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.77 | 3.89 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.15 | 2.01 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.10 |